Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Auckland or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Auckland to win @ 1.83 – our chance 61% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAuckland to win ✓61% · @1.83
Double chanceAuckland or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗10% · fair 9.66
Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland preview and prediction
The match
Wellington Phoenix host Auckland in the A League on Saturday 21 February, with kick-off at 05:00 (WAT) at Sky Stadium. Wellington Phoenix are 1st with 10 points from 4 games (top of the table), while Auckland sit 8th on 5 points (in the bottom half).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.0 for Wellington Phoenix and 2.0 for Auckland. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 57% and both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Auckland to win at 1.83 – 61% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Auckland or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Wellington Phoenix 0–2 Auckland. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Wellington Phoenix15%fair 6.46 · @3.80
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.75
Auckland61%fair 1.64 · @1.83
3.00Expected goals
0.96Wellington Phoenix xG
2.04Auckland xG
59%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–210%
0–110%
1–210%
1–110%
0–37%
1–37%
From our goals model: Wellington Phoenix 1.0 – 2.0 Auckland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Auckland to win✓
61%
1.64
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Auckland or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.19
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.46
Half-time result
Auckland ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Auckland / FT Auckland✓
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
10%
9.66
–
Form
Wellington Phoenix – last 1
D
13 Feb
@ Western Sydney Wanderers
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Auckland – last 1
D
17 Feb
@ Sydney
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Wellington Phoenix and Auckland.
What is the prediction for Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland?
Our pick is Auckland or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland?
On our numbers Wellington Phoenix have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Auckland 61%.
How many goals will there be in Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland?
Our predicted score is Wellington Phoenix 0–2 Auckland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland?
Wellington Phoenix vs Auckland (A League) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time) at Sky Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
