Value bet: Notaresco to win @ 3.40 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultL'Aquila to win ✗44% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.92
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.01
L'Aquila vs Notaresco preview and prediction
The match
Notaresco travel to face L'Aquila in the Serie D Girone F on Thursday 2 April (14:00 WAT). L'Aquila are 2nd with 25 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Notaresco sit 8th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
L'Aquila's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to Fossombrone 0–1 away. They average 1.4 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Notaresco's last 5: LWWDL Most recently they lost to Teramo 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Notaresco arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for L'Aquila and 1.1 for Notaresco. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 48%.
Value angle: Notaresco to win at 3.40 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 55% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: L'Aquila 1–1 Notaresco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
L'Aquila44%fair 2.26 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.10
Notaresco34%fair 2.98 · @3.40
2.51Expected goals
1.37L'Aquila xG
1.14Notaresco xG
48%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: L'Aquila 1.4 – 1.1 Notaresco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
L'Aquila to win✗
44%
2.26
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT L'Aquila / FT L'Aquila✗
24%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.01
–
Form
L'Aquila – last 5
LLDLD
29 Mar
@ Fossombrone
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Teramo
1–3
L
15 Mar
@ Vigor Senigallia
2–2
D
1 Mar
vs Sora
2–3
L
22 Feb
@ Real Giulianova
2–2
D
1.4Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Notaresco – last 6
LWWDLD
29 Mar
@ Teramo
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Sammaurese
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Sora
3–0
W
1 Mar
vs Fossombrone
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Maceratese
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs Vigor Senigallia
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between L'Aquila and Notaresco.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win L'Aquila vs Notaresco?
On our numbers L'Aquila have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Notaresco 34%.
How many goals will there be in L'Aquila vs Notaresco?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for L'Aquila vs Notaresco?
Our predicted score is L'Aquila 1–1 Notaresco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is L'Aquila vs Notaresco?
L'Aquila vs Notaresco (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Thursday 2 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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