Value bet: Şahdağ to win @ 3.80 – our chance 37% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +41%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMingəçevir to win ✗42% · @1.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗5% · fair 19.40
Şahdağ vs Mingəçevir preview and prediction
The match
Şahdağ host Mingəçevir in the Birinci Dasta on Tuesday 5 May, with kick-off at 13:00 (WAT). Şahdağ are 2nd with 15 points from 6 games (in the top four), while Mingəçevir sit 9th on 4 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Şahdağ's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat MOIK 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mingəçevir's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Zaqatala 7–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.0 for Şahdağ and 1.1 for Mingəçevir. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Şahdağ to win at 3.80 – 37% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Şahdağ 2–1 Mingəçevir. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Şahdağ37%fair 2.69 · @3.80
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @3.50
Mingəçevir42%fair 2.37 · @1.75
3.09Expected goals
2.03Şahdağ xG
1.06Mingəçevir xG
53%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
1–110%
2–09%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Şahdağ 2.0 – 1.1 Mingəçevir expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mingəçevir to win✗
42%
2.37
1.75
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Şahdağ ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Şahdağ / FT Şahdağ✓
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
5%
19.40
–
Form
Şahdağ – last 6
WWDWWL
29 Apr
@ MOIK
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Zaqatala
1–0
W
15 Apr
vs Cəbrayıl
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Difai Ağsu
3–0
W
3 Apr
vs Şimal
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ Safa Baku
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Mingəçevir – last 6
WLWWWD
29 Apr
vs Zaqatala
7–1
W
22 Apr
@ Cəbrayıl
1–2
L
16 Apr
vs Difai Ağsu
2–1
W
9 Apr
@ Şimal
3–0
W
3 Apr
vs Safa Baku
5–2
W
18 Mar
@ Baku Sportinq
1–1
D
3.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Şahdağ and Mingəçevir.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Şahdağ vs Mingəçevir?
On our numbers Şahdağ have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Mingəçevir 42%.
How many goals will there be in Şahdağ vs Mingəçevir?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Şahdağ vs Mingəçevir?
Our predicted score is Şahdağ 2–1 Mingəçevir, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Şahdağ vs Mingəçevir?
Şahdağ vs Mingəçevir (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
