Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultDerio to win ✓60% · @1.75
Double chanceDerio or draw ✓84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.86
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.62
Derio vs Zamudio preview and prediction
The match
Zamudio travel to Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo in the Tercera División RFEF Group 4 on Sunday 8 March (17:30 WAT) to face Derio.
Form guide
Zamudio's last 3: LLW Most recently they lost to Touring 2–3 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 2.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Derio and 0.8 for Zamudio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 46%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Derio 60%, draw 25%, Zamudio 16%.
Safer route: Derio or draw (84%) at 1.17.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Derio to win – a 60% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.67, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Derio 1–0 Zamudio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Derio60%fair 1.67 · @1.75
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.30
Zamudio16%fair 6.42 · @4.20
2.62Expected goals
1.80Derio xG
0.82Zamudio xG
46%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Derio 1.8 – 0.8 Zamudio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Derio to win✓
60%
1.67
1.75
Double chance
Derio or draw✓
84%
1.18
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Derio ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Derio / FT Derio✓
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.62
–
Form
Derio – last 1
D
1 Mar
@ Santurtzi
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Zamudio – last 3
LLW
1 Mar
vs Touring
2–3
L
22 Feb
@ Deportivo Alavés III
0–5
L
15 Feb
vs Aurrerá Vitoria
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Derio and Zamudio.
Our pick is Derio to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Derio vs Zamudio?
On our numbers Derio have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Zamudio 16%.
How many goals will there be in Derio vs Zamudio?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Derio vs Zamudio?
Our predicted score is Derio 1–0 Zamudio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Derio vs Zamudio?
Derio vs Zamudio (Tercera División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
