Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Selaya to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSelaya to win ✓63% · @1.85
Double chanceSelaya or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.68
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 6.05
Selaya vs Noja preview and prediction
The match
Noja travel to Estadio El Castañal in the Tercera División RFEF Group 3 on Friday 3 April (16:00 WAT) to face Selaya.
Form guide
Selaya's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Castro 1–3 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Noja's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Laredo 1–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Selaya arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 0.5 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Selaya and 0.7 for Noja. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 40%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Selaya 63%, draw 21%, Noja 16%.
Safer route: Selaya or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Selaya to win at 1.85 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Selaya or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Selaya 1–0 Noja. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Selaya63%fair 1.58 · @1.85
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.40
Noja16%fair 6.13 · @3.60
2.30Expected goals
1.64Selaya xG
0.65Noja xG
40%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Selaya 1.6 – 0.7 Noja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Selaya to win✓
63%
1.58
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Selaya or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Selaya / FT Selaya✓
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
6.05
–
Form
Selaya – last 6
LLWLLL
29 Mar
@ Castro
1–3
L
22 Mar
vs Cayón
0–2
L
8 Mar
vs Escobedo
2–0
W
1 Mar
@ Vimenor
0–1
L
25 Feb
vs Guarnizo
0–3
L
22 Feb
vs Tropezón
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Noja – last 6
LLLLLL
29 Mar
vs Laredo
1–3
L
15 Mar
vs Torina
0–1
L
8 Mar
@ Barquereño
0–2
L
1 Mar
vs Atlético Albericia
2–5
L
25 Feb
vs Vimenor
0–2
L
21 Feb
vs Castro
1–4
L
0.7Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Selaya and Noja.
Our pick is Selaya or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Selaya vs Noja?
On our numbers Selaya have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Noja 16%.
How many goals will there be in Selaya vs Noja?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Selaya vs Noja?
Our predicted score is Selaya 1–0 Noja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Selaya vs Noja?
Selaya vs Noja (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Castañal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
