Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCastro to win ✓65% · @1.62
Double chanceCastro or draw ✓88% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗58% · fair 1.74
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.09
Castro vs Selaya preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 3 sees Castro take on Selaya on Sunday 29 March, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Campo Riomar. Castro are 12th with 8 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Selaya sit 16th on 7 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Castro's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with Bezana 2–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.
Selaya's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Cayón 0–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game.
Castro arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.4 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Castro and 0.6 for Selaya. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 42%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Castro 65%, draw 24%, Selaya 12%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Castro to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.55, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Castro 1–0 Selaya. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Castro65%fair 1.55 · @1.62
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.40
Selaya12%fair 8.48 · @5.00
2.37Expected goals
1.76Castro xG
0.61Selaya xG
42%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Castro 1.8 – 0.6 Selaya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Castro to win✓
65%
1.55
1.62
Double chance
Castro or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
58%
1.74
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Castro ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Castro / FT Castro✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.09
–
Form
Castro – last 5
DWLWL
15 Mar
vs Bezana
2–2
D
1 Mar
vs Barquereño
2–1
W
25 Feb
vs Escobedo
1–2
L
21 Feb
@ Noja
4–1
W
15 Feb
vs Atlético Albericia
0–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Selaya – last 5
LWLLL
22 Mar
vs Cayón
0–2
L
8 Mar
vs Escobedo
2–0
W
1 Mar
@ Vimenor
0–1
L
25 Feb
vs Guarnizo
0–3
L
22 Feb
vs Tropezón
0–1
L
0.4Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
0%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castro and Selaya.
Our pick is Castro to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Castro vs Selaya?
On our numbers Castro have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Selaya 12%.
How many goals will there be in Castro vs Selaya?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Castro vs Selaya?
Our predicted score is Castro 1–0 Selaya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Castro vs Selaya?
Castro vs Selaya (Tercera División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Riomar.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Colindres2
Noja1