Value bet: Estradense to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlondras to win ✗41% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.37
Alondras vs Estradense preview and prediction
The match
The Tercera División RFEF Group 1 sees Alondras take on Estradense on Sunday 8 March, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT) at Campo do Morrazo. Alondras are 12th with 12 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Estradense sit 7th on 15 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Alondras and 1.2 for Estradense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 47%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Estradense to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 54% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Alondras 1–1 Estradense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alondras41%fair 2.41 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.40
Estradense36%fair 2.78 · @3.10
2.51Expected goals
1.31Alondras xG
1.20Estradense xG
47%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Alondras 1.3 – 1.2 Estradense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alondras to win✗
41%
2.41
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alondras / FT Alondras✗
23%
4.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.37
–
Form
Alondras – last 1
W
22 Feb
vs Coruña
3–2
W
3.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Estradense – last 2
LL
22 Feb
@ Celta de Vigo III
1–2
L
18 Feb
@ Celtiga
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alondras and Estradense.
What is the prediction for Alondras vs Estradense?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Alondras vs Estradense?
On our numbers Alondras have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Estradense 36%.
How many goals will there be in Alondras vs Estradense?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alondras vs Estradense?
Our predicted score is Alondras 1–1 Estradense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Alondras vs Estradense?
Alondras vs Estradense (Tercera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo do Morrazo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Polvorín1
Compostela0