Value bet: Francavilla to win @ 3.20 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGravina to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.89
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.37
Gravina vs Francavilla preview and prediction
The match
Gravina host Francavilla in the Serie D Girone H on Sunday 15 February, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Stadio Comunale Stefano Vicino. Gravina are 4th with 20 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Francavilla sit 17th on 8 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Gravina and 1.1 for Francavilla. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 47%.
Value angle: Francavilla to win at 3.20 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 56% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Gravina 1–1 Francavilla. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gravina45%fair 2.23 · @2.00
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.25
Francavilla34%fair 2.93 · @3.20
2.39Expected goals
1.31Gravina xG
1.09Francavilla xG
47%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Gravina 1.3 – 1.1 Francavilla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gravina to win✓
45%
2.23
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gravina / FT Gravina✓
24%
4.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.37
–
Form
Gravina
No recent results on record.
Francavilla
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gravina and Francavilla.
What is the prediction for Gravina vs Francavilla?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Gravina vs Francavilla?
On our numbers Gravina have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Francavilla 34%.
How many goals will there be in Gravina vs Francavilla?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gravina vs Francavilla?
Our predicted score is Gravina 1–1 Francavilla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Gravina vs Francavilla?
Gravina vs Francavilla (Serie D Girone H) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Stefano Vicino.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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