Value bet: Ancona to win @ 1.73 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAncona to win ✗65% · @1.73
Double chanceAncona or draw ✓87% · @1.13
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.06
Ancona vs Notaresco preview and prediction
The match
Notaresco travel to Stadio del Conero in the Serie D Girone F on Sunday 3 May (14:00 WAT) to face Ancona. Ancona are 3rd with 21 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Notaresco sit 8th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Ancona's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat Sammaurese 3–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Notaresco's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Victor San Marino 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Ancona and 0.6 for Notaresco. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 50%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ancona 65%, draw 22%, Notaresco 13%.
Safer route: Ancona or draw (87%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Ancona to win at 1.73 – 65% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ancona 1–0 Notaresco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ancona65%fair 1.55 · @1.73
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.35
Notaresco13%fair 7.62 · @4.60
2.35Expected goals
1.73Ancona xG
0.62Notaresco xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Ancona 1.7 – 0.6 Notaresco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ancona to win✗
65%
1.55
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Ancona or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.13
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Ancona ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ancona / FT Ancona✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.06
–
Form
Ancona – last 6
WLWDWW
19 Apr
vs Sammaurese
3–0
W
2 Apr
vs Teramo
0–2
L
29 Mar
@ Vigor Senigallia
1–0
W
22 Mar
vs Sora
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Real Giulianova
2–1
W
1 Mar
vs Maceratese
4–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Notaresco – last 6
LWWLWW
26 Apr
vs Victor San Marino
1–2
L
19 Apr
@ Termoli Calcio
2–1
W
2 Apr
@ L'Aquila
2–0
W
29 Mar
@ Teramo
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Sammaurese
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Sora
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ancona and Notaresco.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ancona vs Notaresco?
On our numbers Ancona have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Notaresco 13%.
How many goals will there be in Ancona vs Notaresco?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ancona vs Notaresco?
Our predicted score is Ancona 1–0 Notaresco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Ancona vs Notaresco?
Ancona vs Notaresco (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio del Conero.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ostia Mare0
Chieti1