San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi prediction & analysis
87%
Footrivo pick
San Donato Tavarnelle or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: San Donato Tavarnelle to win @ 1.95 – our chance 61% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSan Donato Tavarnelle to win ✗61% · @1.95
Double chanceSan Donato Tavarnelle or draw ✗87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.94
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi preview and prediction
The match
San Donato Tavarnelle host Poggibonsi in the Serie D Girone E on Sunday 22 February, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Stadio Comunale Pianigiani.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for San Donato Tavarnelle and 0.6 for Poggibonsi. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 43%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Donato Tavarnelle 61%, draw 26%, Poggibonsi 13%.
Safer route: San Donato Tavarnelle or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Value angle: San Donato Tavarnelle to win at 1.95 – 61% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was San Donato Tavarnelle or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: San Donato Tavarnelle 1–0 Poggibonsi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Donato Tavarnelle61%fair 1.64 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @3.20
Poggibonsi13%fair 7.77 · @3.50
2.28Expected goals
1.65San Donato Tavarnelle xG
0.63Poggibonsi xG
43%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: San Donato Tavarnelle 1.6 – 0.6 Poggibonsi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
San Donato Tavarnelle to win✗
61%
1.64
1.95 ▲
Double chance
San Donato Tavarnelle or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT San Donato Tavarnelle / FT San Donato Tavarnelle✗
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.94
–
Form
San Donato Tavarnelle – last 1
D
15 Feb
@ Gavorrano
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Poggibonsi – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Foligno Calcio
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Donato Tavarnelle and Poggibonsi.
What is the prediction for San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi?
Our pick is San Donato Tavarnelle or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi?
On our numbers San Donato Tavarnelle have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Poggibonsi 13%.
How many goals will there be in San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi?
Our predicted score is San Donato Tavarnelle 1–0 Poggibonsi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi?
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Poggibonsi (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Pianigiani.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Grosseto0
Orvietana Calcio1