Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLudogorets to win ✓71% · @1.20
Double chanceLudogorets or draw ✓90% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗13% · fair 7.42
Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets preview and prediction
The match
The First League sees Spartak Varna take on Ludogorets on Thursday 19 March, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Stadion Spartak. Spartak Varna are 7th with 16 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Ludogorets sit 3rd on 30 points (in the top four). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Spartak Varna's last 5: LLWLD Most recently they lost to CSKA 1948 1–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Ludogorets's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Montana 3–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Ludogorets arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.7 for Spartak Varna and 2.2 for Ludogorets. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 58%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ludogorets to win – a 71% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Spartak Varna 0–2 Ludogorets. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spartak Varna10%fair 9.70 · @12.00
Draw19%fair 5.32 · @5.40
Ludogorets71%fair 1.41 · @1.20
2.85Expected goals
0.69Spartak Varna xG
2.16Ludogorets xG
55%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–213%
0–112%
0–310%
1–29%
1–19%
1–37%
From our goals model: Spartak Varna 0.7 – 2.2 Ludogorets expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ludogorets to win✓
71%
1.41
1.20
Double chance
Ludogorets or draw✓
90%
1.12
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.62
Half-time result
Ludogorets ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ludogorets / FT Ludogorets✓
47%
2.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
13%
7.42
–
Form
Spartak Varna – last 6
LLWLDD
14 Mar
vs CSKA 1948
1–2
L
6 Mar
@ Slavia Sofia
0–4
L
3 Mar
vs Montana
1–0
W
27 Feb
@ Arda Kardzhali
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Lokomotiv Sofia
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ludogorets – last 6
WWDLLW
9 Mar
@ Montana
3–0
W
5 Mar
vs Levski Sofia
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1–1
D
26 Feb
@ Ferencvarosi TC
0–2
L
23 Feb
@ Botev Plovdiv
1–2
L
19 Feb
vs Ferencvarosi TC
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spartak Varna and Ludogorets.
What is the prediction for Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
Our pick is Ludogorets to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
On our numbers Spartak Varna have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Ludogorets 71%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
Our predicted score is Spartak Varna 0–2 Ludogorets, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets (First League) kicks off on Thursday 19 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Spartak.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
