Value bet: Slavia Sofia to win @ 1.67 – our chance 65% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSlavia Sofia to win ✓65% · @1.67
Double chanceSlavia Sofia or draw ✓88% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.37
Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna preview and prediction
The match
Slavia Sofia host Spartak Varna in the First League on Friday 6 March, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov. Slavia Sofia are 8th with 14 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Spartak Varna sit 7th on 16 points (in the top half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Slavia Sofia's last 3: WLL Most recently they beat Beroe 3–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Spartak Varna's last 4: WLDD Most recently they beat Montana 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Slavia Sofia and 0.6 for Spartak Varna. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Slavia Sofia 65%, draw 23%, Spartak Varna 12%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Slavia Sofia to win at 1.67 – 65% on our numbers against 60% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Slavia Sofia 1–0 Spartak Varna. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Slavia Sofia65%fair 1.53 · @1.67
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.40
Spartak Varna12%fair 8.23 · @4.80
2.44Expected goals
1.81Slavia Sofia xG
0.64Spartak Varna xG
50%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
0–09%
3–09%
From our goals model: Slavia Sofia 1.8 – 0.6 Spartak Varna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Slavia Sofia to win✓
65%
1.53
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Slavia Sofia or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.28
Half-time result
Slavia Sofia ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Slavia Sofia / FT Slavia Sofia✓
41%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.37
–
Form
Slavia Sofia – last 3
WLL
3 Mar
@ Beroe
3–0
W
27 Feb
vs CSKA 1948
0–2
L
21 Feb
@ CSKA Sofia
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Spartak Varna – last 4
WLDD
3 Mar
vs Montana
1–0
W
27 Feb
@ Arda Kardzhali
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Lokomotiv Sofia
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Slavia Sofia and Spartak Varna.
What is the prediction for Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
On our numbers Slavia Sofia have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Spartak Varna 12%.
How many goals will there be in Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
Our predicted score is Slavia Sofia 1–0 Spartak Varna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna?
Slavia Sofia vs Spartak Varna (First League) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Aleksandar Shalamanov.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
