Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Lokomotiv Sofia or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Lokomotiv Sofia to win @ 1.91 – our chance 65% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLokomotiv Sofia to win ✗65% · @1.91
Double chanceLokomotiv Sofia or draw ✓85% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.22
Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia preview and prediction
The match
The First League sees Spartak Varna take on Lokomotiv Sofia on Friday 13 February, kicking off at 16:45 (WAT) at Stadion Spartak. Spartak Varna are 7th with 16 points from 14 games (in the top half), while Lokomotiv Sofia sit 14th on 9 points (in the bottom three).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.7 for Spartak Varna and 1.7 for Lokomotiv Sofia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Spartak Varna 15%, draw 20%, Lokomotiv Sofia 65%.
Safer route: Lokomotiv Sofia or draw (85%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Lokomotiv Sofia to win at 1.91 – 65% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lokomotiv Sofia or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Spartak Varna 0–1 Lokomotiv Sofia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Spartak Varna15%fair 6.50 · @3.75
Draw20%fair 4.98 · @3.20
Lokomotiv Sofia65%fair 1.55 · @1.91
2.36Expected goals
0.65Spartak Varna xG
1.71Lokomotiv Sofia xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–214%
1–111%
0–09%
1–29%
0–38%
From our goals model: Spartak Varna 0.7 – 1.7 Lokomotiv Sofia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lokomotiv Sofia to win✗
65%
1.55
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Lokomotiv Sofia or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.25
Half-time result
Lokomotiv Sofia ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lokomotiv Sofia / FT Lokomotiv Sofia✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.22
–
Form
Spartak Varna
No recent results on record.
Lokomotiv Sofia
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spartak Varna and Lokomotiv Sofia.
What is the prediction for Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Our pick is Lokomotiv Sofia or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
On our numbers Spartak Varna have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Lokomotiv Sofia 65%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Our predicted score is Spartak Varna 0–1 Lokomotiv Sofia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia?
Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Sofia (First League) kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Spartak.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
