Value bet: Durango to win @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDurango to win ✗57% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.76
Cimarrones vs Durango preview and prediction
The match
Durango travel to Estadio Héroe de Nacozari in the Liga Premier Serie A on Saturday 28 March (03:00 WAT) to face Cimarrones.
Form guide
Cimarrones's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Reboceros La Piedad 3–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.6 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Durango's last 4: WWWW Most recently they beat Ensenada 6–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.1 for Cimarrones and 1.8 for Durango. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 59%.
Value angle: Durango to win at 1.90 – 57% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Cimarrones 1–1 Durango. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cimarrones23%fair 4.42 · @3.60
Draw21%fair 4.83 · @3.40
Durango57%fair 1.77 · @1.90
2.88Expected goals
1.05Cimarrones xG
1.83Durango xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
0–110%
1–210%
0–29%
1–36%
1–06%
From our goals model: Cimarrones 1.1 – 1.8 Durango expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Durango to win✗
57%
1.77
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.35
Half-time result
Durango ahead at half-time✗
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Durango / FT Durango✗
35%
2.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.76
–
Form
Cimarrones – last 5
WWWDW
22 Mar
@ Reboceros La Piedad
3–2
W
14 Mar
vs Colima
2–0
W
28 Feb
vs Los Cabos United
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Tigres de Alica
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Tritons Vallarta
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Durango – last 4
WWWW
21 Mar
vs Ensenada
6–0
W
7 Mar
vs UA Zacatecas
3–0
W
21 Feb
@ Colima
4–1
W
17 Feb
vs Leones Negros
1–0
W
3.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cimarrones and Durango.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cimarrones vs Durango?
On our numbers Cimarrones have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Durango 57%.
How many goals will there be in Cimarrones vs Durango?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cimarrones vs Durango?
Our predicted score is Cimarrones 1–1 Durango, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Cimarrones vs Durango?
Cimarrones vs Durango (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Saturday 28 March 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Héroe de Nacozari.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tritons Vallarta2
Los Cabos United0