Value bet: Leones Negros to win @ 2.85 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTecos to win ✗39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.88
Tecos vs Leones Negros preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Premier Serie A sees Tecos take on Leones Negros on Friday 27 March, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Tres de Marzo.
Form guide
Tecos's last 3: DLD Most recently they drew with Tigres de Alica 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Tecos and 1.4 for Leones Negros. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Leones Negros to win at 2.85 – 38% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Tecos 1–1 Leones Negros. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tecos39%fair 2.58 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.35
Leones Negros38%fair 2.61 · @2.85
2.90Expected goals
1.46Tecos xG
1.45Leones Negros xG
62%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Tecos 1.5 – 1.4 Leones Negros expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tecos to win✗
39%
2.58
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.61
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.42
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tecos / FT Tecos✗
22%
4.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.88
–
Form
Tecos – last 3
DLD
13 Mar
vs Tigres de Alica
1–1
D
7 Mar
@ Tritons Vallarta
0–1
L
20 Feb
vs Guerreros
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Leones Negros – last 1
L
17 Feb
@ Durango
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tecos and Leones Negros.
What is the prediction for Tecos vs Leones Negros?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tecos vs Leones Negros?
On our numbers Tecos have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Leones Negros 38%.
How many goals will there be in Tecos vs Leones Negros?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tecos vs Leones Negros?
Our predicted score is Tecos 1–1 Leones Negros, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Tecos vs Leones Negros?
Tecos vs Leones Negros (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Friday 27 March 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tres de Marzo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
