Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Şamaxı FK to win @ 3.10 – our chance 36% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultŞamaxı FK to win ✗36% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.72
Qabala vs Şamaxı FK preview and prediction
The match
Qabala host Şamaxı FK in the Premyer Liqa on Thursday 21 May, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT) at Şəhər stadionu. Qabala are 10th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Şamaxı FK sit 7th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Qabala's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Sumqayıt 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Şamaxı FK's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Sabah FA 0–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Şamaxı FK arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Qabala and 1.3 for Şamaxı FK. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Qabala 36%, draw 28%, Şamaxı FK 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Şamaxı FK to win at 3.10 – 36% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Qabala 1–1 Şamaxı FK. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Qabala36%fair 2.80 · @2.30
Draw28%fair 3.58 · @2.95
Şamaxı FK36%fair 2.75 · @3.10
2.39Expected goals
1.07Qabala xG
1.32Şamaxı FK xG
53%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Qabala 1.1 – 1.3 Şamaxı FK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Şamaxı FK to win✗
36%
2.75
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Şamaxı FK / FT Şamaxı FK✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.72
–
Form
Qabala – last 6
LLWLLL
19 Apr
@ Sumqayıt
0–1
L
12 Apr
vs Imisli FK
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Kapaz
2–0
W
15 Mar
vs Neftchi Baku
1–3
L
10 Mar
@ Sabah FA
1–7
L
24 Feb
vs Turan
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Şamaxı FK – last 6
LWDLWD
3 May
vs Sabah FA
0–3
L
26 Apr
vs Kapaz
2–0
W
7 Apr
@ Zira
1–1
D
18 Mar
vs Araz
0–1
L
13 Mar
@ Sumqayıt
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Mil-Muğan
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Qabala and Şamaxı FK.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Qabala vs Şamaxı FK?
On our numbers Qabala have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Şamaxı FK 36%.
How many goals will there be in Qabala vs Şamaxı FK?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qabala vs Şamaxı FK?
Our predicted score is Qabala 1–1 Şamaxı FK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Qabala vs Şamaxı FK?
Qabala vs Şamaxı FK (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Şəhər stadionu.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
