Sumqayıt host Qarabag in the Premyer Liqa on Friday 22 May, with kick-off at 16:30 (WAT) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium. Sumqayıt are 9th with 10 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Qarabag sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Sumqayıt's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Zira 1–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Qarabag's last 5: WLLWD Most recently they beat Turan 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Qarabag arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.7 for Sumqayıt and 2.3 for Qarabag. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 54% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sumqayıt 8%, draw 20%, Qarabag 72%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Qarabag to win – a 72% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Sumqayıt 0–2 Qarabag. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sumqayıt8%fair 12.55 · @8.20
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @4.60
Qarabag72%fair 1.39 · @1.33
2.95Expected goals
0.68Sumqayıt xG
2.27Qarabag xG
54%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–214%
0–112%
0–310%
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
From our goals model: Sumqayıt 0.7 – 2.3 Qarabag expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Double chance
Qarabag or draw✓
92%
1.09
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.60
1.57
Half-time result
Qarabag ahead at half-time✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qarabag / FT Qarabag✓
49%
2.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
14%
7.39
–
Form
Sumqayıt – last 6
LWLLLD
17 May
@ Zira
1–2
L
19 Apr
vs Qabala
1–0
W
5 Apr
vs Neftchi Baku
1–3
L
19 Mar
@ Sabah FA
1–3
L
13 Mar
vs Keshla FC
0–1
L
7 Mar
@ Karvan
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Qarabag – last 6
WLLWDL
4 May
vs Turan
2–1
W
30 Apr
@ Neftchi Baku
1–2
L
22 Apr
@ Sabah FA
1–2
L
6 Apr
vs Karvan
8–0
W
3 Apr
vs Sabah FA
2–2
D
20 Mar
@ Kapaz
0–1
L
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sumqayıt and Qarabag.
Our pick is Qarabag to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Sumqayıt vs Qarabag?
On our numbers Sumqayıt have a 8% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Qarabag 72%.
How many goals will there be in Sumqayıt vs Qarabag?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sumqayıt vs Qarabag?
Our predicted score is Sumqayıt 0–2 Qarabag, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Sumqayıt vs Qarabag?
Sumqayıt vs Qarabag (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Friday 22 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
