Şamaxı FK travel to Palms Sports Arena in the Premyer Liqa on Sunday 10 May (16:30 WAT) to face Neftchi Baku. Neftchi Baku are 1st with 24 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Şamaxı FK sit 7th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Neftchi Baku's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Karvan 3–0 away. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game.
Şamaxı FK's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Sabah FA 0–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Neftchi Baku arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 28 February 2026, finished Keshla FC 2–2 Neftchi Baku.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Neftchi Baku and 0.8 for Şamaxı FK. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Neftchi Baku 62%, draw 22%, Şamaxı FK 16%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Neftchi Baku 1–0 Şamaxı FK. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Neftchi Baku62%fair 1.62 · @1.48
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.90
Şamaxı FK16%fair 6.13 · @6.00
2.55Expected goals
1.78Neftchi Baku xG
0.77Şamaxı FK xG
52%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Neftchi Baku 1.8 – 0.8 Şamaxı FK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK?
On our numbers Neftchi Baku have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Şamaxı FK 16%.
How many goals will there be in Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK?
Our predicted score is Neftchi Baku 1–0 Şamaxı FK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK?
Neftchi Baku vs Şamaxı FK (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Palms Sports Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Karvan0