Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNeftchi Baku to win ✓69% · @1.28
Double chanceNeftchi Baku or draw ✓89% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗11% · fair 9.34
Karvan vs Neftchi Baku preview and prediction
The match
The Premyer Liqa sees Karvan take on Neftchi Baku on Tuesday 5 May, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT) at Yevlakh City Stadium.
Form guide
Karvan's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Sabah FA 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Neftchi Baku's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Qarabag 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Neftchi Baku arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 0.9 for Karvan and 2.1 for Neftchi Baku. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 55% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Karvan 11%, draw 19%, Neftchi Baku 69%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Karvan 0–2 Neftchi Baku. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Karvan11%fair 8.77 · @9.75
Draw19%fair 5.14 · @4.60
Neftchi Baku69%fair 1.45 · @1.28
3.05Expected goals
0.92Karvan xG
2.13Neftchi Baku xG
55%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–110%
1–210%
1–19%
0–38%
1–37%
From our goals model: Karvan 0.9 – 2.1 Neftchi Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✓
69%
1.45
1.28
Double chance
Neftchi Baku or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.45
Half-time result
Neftchi Baku ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✓
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
9.34
–
Form
Karvan – last 6
LWLLLD
27 Apr
@ Sabah FA
0–2
L
10 Apr
vs Kapaz
4–1
W
6 Apr
@ Qarabag
0–8
L
19 Mar
vs Zira
0–1
L
13 Mar
@ Araz
1–2
L
7 Mar
vs Sumqayıt
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Neftchi Baku – last 6
WDWWWL
30 Apr
vs Qarabag
2–1
W
17 Apr
@ Zira
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Sumqayıt
3–1
W
20 Mar
vs Imisli FK
6–0
W
15 Mar
@ Qabala
3–1
W
9 Mar
vs Turan
0–1
L
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Karvan and Neftchi Baku.
What is the prediction for Karvan vs Neftchi Baku?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Karvan vs Neftchi Baku?
On our numbers Karvan have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Neftchi Baku 69%.
How many goals will there be in Karvan vs Neftchi Baku?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Karvan vs Neftchi Baku?
Our predicted score is Karvan 0–2 Neftchi Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Karvan vs Neftchi Baku?
Karvan vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Yevlakh City Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
