Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.67
Qarabag vs Turan preview and prediction
The match
Qarabag host Turan in the Premyer Liqa on Monday 4 May, with kick-off at 16:30 (WAT) at Azersun Arena. Qarabag are 4th with 19 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Turan sit 2nd on 21 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Qarabag's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Neftchi Baku 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
Turan's last 5: DDWDL Most recently they drew with Zira 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.9 for Qarabag and 0.6 for Turan. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Qarabag 67%, draw 22%, Turan 11%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Qarabag 1–0 Turan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Qarabag67%fair 1.49 · @1.48
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @3.75
Turan11%fair 9.01 · @6.25
2.54Expected goals
1.91Qarabag xG
0.63Turan xG
49%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
3–09%
2–19%
0–08%
From our goals model: Qarabag 1.9 – 0.6 Turan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win✓
67%
1.49
1.48
Double chance
Qarabag or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.06
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Half-time result
Qarabag ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qarabag / FT Qarabag✗
43%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.67
–
Form
Qarabag – last 6
LLWDLW
30 Apr
@ Neftchi Baku
1–2
L
22 Apr
@ Sabah FA
1–2
L
6 Apr
vs Karvan
8–0
W
3 Apr
vs Sabah FA
2–2
D
20 Mar
@ Kapaz
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Araz
6–0
W
3.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Turan – last 6
DDWDLD
27 Apr
vs Zira
1–1
D
21 Apr
@ Zira
0–0
D
17 Apr
@ Araz
3–0
W
7 Apr
@ Imisli FK
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Zira
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Kapaz
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Qarabag and Turan.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Qarabag vs Turan?
On our numbers Qarabag have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Turan 11%.
How many goals will there be in Qarabag vs Turan?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qarabag vs Turan?
Our predicted score is Qarabag 1–0 Turan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Qarabag vs Turan?
Qarabag vs Turan (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Azersun Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
