Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Kapaz to win @ 3.55 – our chance 31% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultŞamaxı FK to win ✓46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.76
Şamaxı FK vs Kapaz preview and prediction
The match
The Premyer Liqa sees Şamaxı FK take on Kapaz on Sunday 26 April, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT) at Shamakhi City Stadium. Şamaxı FK are 7th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Kapaz sit 6th on 17 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Şamaxı FK's last 5: DLWDL Most recently they drew with Zira 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Kapaz's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Imisli FK 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Şamaxı FK and 1.0 for Kapaz. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Şamaxı FK 46%, draw 23%, Kapaz 31%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Kapaz to win at 3.55 – 31% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Şamaxı FK 1–1 Kapaz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Şamaxı FK46%fair 2.18 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.00
Kapaz31%fair 3.25 · @3.55
2.32Expected goals
1.32Şamaxı FK xG
1.01Kapaz xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Şamaxı FK 1.3 – 1.0 Kapaz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Şamaxı FK to win✓
46%
2.18
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Şamaxı FK / FT Şamaxı FK✗
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.76
–
Form
Şamaxı FK – last 6
DLWDLD
7 Apr
@ Zira
1–1
D
18 Mar
vs Araz
0–1
L
13 Mar
@ Sumqayıt
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Mil-Muğan
0–0
D
4 Mar
@ Qarabag
1–3
L
28 Feb
vs Neftchi Baku
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Kapaz – last 6
LLLWDD
19 Apr
vs Imisli FK
0–1
L
10 Apr
@ Karvan
1–4
L
5 Apr
vs Qabala
0–2
L
20 Mar
vs Qarabag
1–0
W
15 Mar
vs Turan
1–1
D
9 Mar
@ Zira
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Şamaxı FK and Kapaz.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Şamaxı FK vs Kapaz?
On our numbers Şamaxı FK have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Kapaz 31%.
How many goals will there be in Şamaxı FK vs Kapaz?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Şamaxı FK vs Kapaz?
Our predicted score is Şamaxı FK 1–1 Kapaz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Şamaxı FK vs Kapaz?
Şamaxı FK vs Kapaz (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Shamakhi City Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
