Value bet: Araz to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAraz to win ✓38% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.37
Keshla FC vs Araz preview and prediction
The match
Keshla FC host Araz in the Premyer Liqa on Wednesday 18 March, with kick-off at 12:00 (WAT) at Shamakhi City Stadium. Keshla FC are 7th with 14 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Araz sit 12th on 4 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Keshla FC's last 5: WDLDD Most recently they beat Sumqayıt 1–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Araz's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Karvan 2–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Araz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Keshla FC and 1.3 for Araz. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Keshla FC 37%, draw 25%, Araz 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Araz to win at 2.90 – 38% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Keshla FC 1–1 Araz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Keshla FC37%fair 2.70 · @2.38
Draw25%fair 3.95 · @3.00
Araz38%fair 2.66 · @2.90
2.52Expected goals
1.26Keshla FC xG
1.27Araz xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Keshla FC 1.3 – 1.3 Araz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Araz to win✓
38%
2.66
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Araz / FT Araz✗
21%
4.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.37
–
Form
Keshla FC – last 6
WDLDDD
13 Mar
@ Sumqayıt
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Mil-Muğan
0–0
D
4 Mar
@ Qarabag
1–3
L
28 Feb
vs Neftchi Baku
2–2
D
22 Feb
@ Mil-Muğan
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Turan
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Araz – last 5
WLLWW
13 Mar
vs Karvan
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Qarabag
0–6
L
27 Feb
vs Zira
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Karvan
2–0
W
15 Feb
vs Sumqayıt
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Keshla FC and Araz.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Keshla FC vs Araz?
On our numbers Keshla FC have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Araz 38%.
How many goals will there be in Keshla FC vs Araz?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Keshla FC vs Araz?
Our predicted score is Keshla FC 1–1 Araz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Keshla FC vs Araz?
Keshla FC vs Araz (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Wednesday 18 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Shamakhi City Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
