Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Qarabag to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultQarabag to win62% · @1.85
Double chanceQarabag or draw83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–114% · fair 7.37
Zira vs Qarabag preview and prediction
The match
Zira host Qarabag in the Premyer Liqa on Saturday 14 March, with kick-off at 16:15 (WAT) at Zira Stadium. Zira are 5th with 19 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Qarabag sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Zira's last 4: DWWL Most recently they drew with Kapaz 2–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Qarabag's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Araz 6–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Zira and 1.8 for Qarabag. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Zira 17%, draw 22%, Qarabag 62%.
Safer route: Qarabag or draw (83%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Qarabag to win at 1.85 – 62% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Qarabag or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Zira 0–1 Qarabag. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Zira17%fair 6.06 · @4.00
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.00
Qarabag62%fair 1.62 · @1.85
2.58Expected goals
0.79Zira xG
1.79Qarabag xG
51%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Zira 0.8 – 1.8 Qarabag expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win
62%
1.62
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Qarabag or draw
83%
1.20
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.95
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.91
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Qarabag ahead at half-time
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qarabag / FT Qarabag
38%
2.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
14%
7.37
–
Form
Zira – last 4
DWWL
9 Mar
vs Kapaz
2–2
D
3 Mar
vs Sumqayıt
2–0
W
27 Feb
@ Araz
1–0
W
20 Feb
@ Turan
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Qarabag – last 6
WWDLLW
8 Mar
vs Araz
6–0
W
4 Mar
vs Keshla FC
3–1
W
1 Mar
vs Sabah FA
3–3
D
24 Feb
@ Newcastle
2–3
L
18 Feb
vs Newcastle
1–6
L
14 Feb
@ Mil-Muğan
1–0
W
2.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Zira and Qarabag.
Our pick is Qarabag or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Zira vs Qarabag?
On our numbers Zira have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Qarabag 62%.
How many goals will there be in Zira vs Qarabag?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zira vs Qarabag?
Our predicted score is Zira 0–1 Qarabag, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Zira vs Qarabag?
Zira vs Qarabag (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Saturday 14 March 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Zira Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
