Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.42 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.42Odds
2
Value bet: Keshla FC to win @ 3.20 – our chance 36% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSumqayıt to win ✗38% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.68
Sumqayıt vs Keshla FC preview and prediction
The match
Sumqayıt host Keshla FC in the Premyer Liqa on Friday 13 March, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium. Sumqayıt are 9th with 10 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Keshla FC sit 7th on 14 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Sumqayıt's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Karvan 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Keshla FC's last 5: DLDDD Most recently they drew with Mil-Muğan 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Sumqayıt and 1.1 for Keshla FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sumqayıt 38%, draw 26%, Keshla FC 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Keshla FC to win at 3.20 – 36% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: Sumqayıt 1–1 Keshla FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sumqayıt38%fair 2.61 · @2.30
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @2.90
Keshla FC36%fair 2.78 · @3.20
2.35Expected goals
1.20Sumqayıt xG
1.15Keshla FC xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Sumqayıt 1.2 – 1.1 Keshla FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sumqayıt to win✗
38%
2.61
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.93
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sumqayıt / FT Sumqayıt✗
21%
4.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.68
–
Form
Sumqayıt – last 5
DLLDL
7 Mar
@ Karvan
1–1
D
3 Mar
@ Zira
0–2
L
27 Feb
@ Kapaz
0–3
L
20 Feb
vs Qabala
0–0
D
15 Feb
@ Araz
0–1
L
0.2Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Keshla FC – last 5
DLDDD
8 Mar
vs Mil-Muğan
0–0
D
4 Mar
@ Qarabag
1–3
L
28 Feb
vs Neftchi Baku
2–2
D
22 Feb
@ Mil-Muğan
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Turan
0–0
D
0.6Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sumqayıt and Keshla FC.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Sumqayıt vs Keshla FC?
On our numbers Sumqayıt have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Keshla FC 36%.
How many goals will there be in Sumqayıt vs Keshla FC?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sumqayıt vs Keshla FC?
Our predicted score is Sumqayıt 1–1 Keshla FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sumqayıt vs Keshla FC?
Sumqayıt vs Keshla FC (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Karvan1