Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.70Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 53% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNeftchi Baku to win ✓62% · @1.70
Double chanceNeftchi Baku or draw ✓87% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.29
Qabala vs Neftchi Baku preview and prediction
The match
Neftchi Baku travel to face Qabala in the Premyer Liqa on Sunday 15 March (15:00 WAT). Qabala are 10th with 8 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Neftchi Baku sit 1st on 24 points (top of the table). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Qabala's last 4: LLDL Most recently they lost to Sabah FA 1–7 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Neftchi Baku's last 3: LDW Most recently they lost to Turan 0–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Neftchi Baku arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 0.7 for Qabala and 1.7 for Neftchi Baku. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Qabala 13%, draw 26%, Neftchi Baku 62%.
Safer route: Neftchi Baku or draw (87%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.00 – 53% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Neftchi Baku to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.62, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Qabala 0–1 Neftchi Baku. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Qabala13%fair 7.86 · @4.80
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.20
Neftchi Baku62%fair 1.62 · @1.70
2.38Expected goals
0.66Qabala xG
1.72Neftchi Baku xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–214%
1–111%
0–09%
1–29%
0–38%
From our goals model: Qabala 0.7 – 1.7 Neftchi Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✓
62%
1.62
1.70
Double chance
Neftchi Baku or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Neftchi Baku ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.29
–
Form
Qabala – last 4
LLDL
10 Mar
@ Sabah FA
1–7
L
24 Feb
vs Turan
0–3
L
20 Feb
@ Sumqayıt
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Sabah FA
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Neftchi Baku – last 3
LDW
9 Mar
vs Turan
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Keshla FC
2–2
D
15 Feb
@ Kapaz
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Qabala and Neftchi Baku.
What is the prediction for Qabala vs Neftchi Baku?
Our pick is Neftchi Baku to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Qabala vs Neftchi Baku?
On our numbers Qabala have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Neftchi Baku 62%.
How many goals will there be in Qabala vs Neftchi Baku?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qabala vs Neftchi Baku?
Our predicted score is Qabala 0–1 Neftchi Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Qabala vs Neftchi Baku?
Qabala vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
