Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultQarabag to win ✓70% · @1.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.30
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.50
Qarabag vs Araz preview and prediction
The match
The Premyer Liqa sees Qarabag take on Araz on Sunday 8 March, kicking off at 16:15 (WAT) at Azersun Arena. Qarabag are 4th with 19 points from 10 games (in the top four), while Araz sit 12th on 4 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Qarabag's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Keshla FC 3–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Araz's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to Zira 0–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Araz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.2 for Qarabag and 0.8 for Araz. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 59% and both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Qarabag 70%, draw 15%, Araz 15%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.30.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.30 – 51% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Qarabag 2–0 Araz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Qarabag70%fair 1.43 · @1.15
Draw15%fair 6.64 · @6.00
Araz15%fair 6.59 · @16.00
2.98Expected goals
2.15Qarabag xG
0.83Araz xG
51%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Qarabag 2.2 – 0.8 Araz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win✓
70%
1.43
1.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
85%
1.18
1.09
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
2.30 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.70
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.53
Half-time result
Qarabag ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qarabag / FT Qarabag✓
44%
2.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.50
–
Form
Qarabag – last 5
WDLLW
4 Mar
vs Keshla FC
3–1
W
1 Mar
vs Sabah FA
3–3
D
24 Feb
@ Newcastle
2–3
L
18 Feb
vs Newcastle
1–6
L
14 Feb
@ Mil-Muğan
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
2.6Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Araz – last 3
LWW
27 Feb
vs Zira
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Karvan
2–0
W
15 Feb
vs Sumqayıt
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Qarabag and Araz.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Qarabag vs Araz?
On our numbers Qarabag have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Araz 15%.
How many goals will there be in Qarabag vs Araz?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qarabag vs Araz?
Our predicted score is Qarabag 2–0 Araz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Qarabag vs Araz?
Qarabag vs Araz (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Azersun Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
