Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Qarabag to win @ 1.85 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultQarabag to win ✗65% · @1.85
Double chanceQarabag or draw ✗87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.04
Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag preview and prediction
The match
The Premyer Liqa sees Neftchi Baku take on Qarabag on Thursday 30 April, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT) at Palms Sports Arena. Neftchi Baku are 1st with 24 points from 11 games (top of the table), while Qarabag sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Neftchi Baku's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Zira 1–1 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game.
Qarabag's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Sabah FA 1–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 3.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.8 for Neftchi Baku and 2.0 for Qarabag. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Neftchi Baku 13%, draw 22%, Qarabag 65%.
Safer route: Qarabag or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Qarabag to win at 1.85 – 65% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Qarabag or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Neftchi Baku 0–1 Qarabag. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Neftchi Baku13%fair 7.51 · @3.85
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.35
Qarabag65%fair 1.55 · @1.85
2.77Expected goals
0.79Neftchi Baku xG
1.98Qarabag xG
55%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
1–36%
From our goals model: Neftchi Baku 0.8 – 2.0 Qarabag expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win✗
65%
1.55
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Qarabag or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.35
Half-time result
Qarabag ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qarabag / FT Qarabag✗
42%
2.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.04
–
Form
Neftchi Baku – last 6
DWWWLD
17 Apr
@ Zira
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Sumqayıt
3–1
W
20 Mar
vs Imisli FK
6–0
W
15 Mar
@ Qabala
3–1
W
9 Mar
vs Turan
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Keshla FC
2–2
D
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Qarabag – last 6
LWDLWW
22 Apr
@ Sabah FA
1–2
L
6 Apr
vs Karvan
8–0
W
3 Apr
vs Sabah FA
2–2
D
20 Mar
@ Kapaz
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Araz
6–0
W
4 Mar
vs Keshla FC
3–1
W
3.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Neftchi Baku and Qarabag.
What is the prediction for Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag?
Our pick is Qarabag or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag?
On our numbers Neftchi Baku have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Qarabag 65%.
How many goals will there be in Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag?
Our predicted score is Neftchi Baku 0–1 Qarabag, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag?
Neftchi Baku vs Qarabag (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Thursday 30 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Palms Sports Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
