Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
2
Value bet: Keshla FC to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultKeshla FC to win ✗40% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.40
Mil-Muğan vs Keshla FC preview and prediction
The match
Mil-Muğan host Keshla FC in the Premyer Liqa on Sunday 22 February, with kick-off at 11:30 (WAT) at Quba OIK stadionu. Mil-Muğan are 8th with 11 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Keshla FC sit 7th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Mil-Muğan and 1.1 for Keshla FC. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mil-Muğan 34%, draw 26%, Keshla FC 40%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Keshla FC to win at 2.70 – 40% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Mil-Muğan 0–1 Keshla FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mil-Muğan34%fair 2.93 · @2.70
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @2.80
Keshla FC40%fair 2.52 · @2.70
2.10Expected goals
1.00Mil-Muğan xG
1.10Keshla FC xG
49%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–012%
1–012%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Mil-Muğan 1.0 – 1.1 Keshla FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Keshla FC to win✗
40%
2.52
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Keshla FC / FT Keshla FC✗
21%
4.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.40
–
Form
Mil-Muğan – last 1
L
14 Feb
vs Qarabag
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Keshla FC – last 1
D
16 Feb
vs Turan
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mil-Muğan and Keshla FC.
What is the prediction for Mil-Muğan vs Keshla FC?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Mil-Muğan vs Keshla FC?
On our numbers Mil-Muğan have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Keshla FC 40%.
How many goals will there be in Mil-Muğan vs Keshla FC?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mil-Muğan vs Keshla FC?
Our predicted score is Mil-Muğan 0–1 Keshla FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Mil-Muğan vs Keshla FC?
Mil-Muğan vs Keshla FC (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 11:30 (West Africa Time) at Quba OIK stadionu.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
