Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDurango to win ✓68% · @1.22
Double chanceDurango or draw ✓89% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.36
Durango vs Leones Negros preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Premier Serie A sees Durango take on Leones Negros on Tuesday 17 February, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT) at Estadio Francisco Zarco.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.2 for Durango and 0.8 for Leones Negros. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 53% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Durango 2–0 Leones Negros. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Durango68%fair 1.48 · @1.22
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @5.00
Leones Negros11%fair 8.95 · @11.00
2.98Expected goals
2.18Durango xG
0.80Leones Negros xG
53%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–09%
3–17%
From our goals model: Durango 2.2 – 0.8 Leones Negros expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Durango to win✓
68%
1.48
1.22
Double chance
Durango or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Half-time result
Durango ahead at half-time✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Durango / FT Durango✗
45%
2.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.36
–
Form
Durango
No recent results on record.
Leones Negros
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Durango and Leones Negros.
What is the prediction for Durango vs Leones Negros?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Durango vs Leones Negros?
On our numbers Durango have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Leones Negros 11%.
How many goals will there be in Durango vs Leones Negros?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Durango vs Leones Negros?
Our predicted score is Durango 2–0 Leones Negros, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Durango vs Leones Negros?
Durango vs Leones Negros (Liga Premier Serie A) kicks off on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Francisco Zarco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
