Value bet: Crotone to win @ 1.80 – our chance 63% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCrotone to win ✗63% · @1.80
Double chanceCrotone or draw ✓85% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.65
Sorrento vs Crotone preview and prediction
The match
Crotone travel to Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani in the Serie C Girone C on Sunday 22 March (14:30 WAT) to face Sorrento. Sorrento are 9th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Crotone sit 20th on 1 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sorrento's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Audace Cerignola 2–3 away. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Crotone's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Salernitana 0–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Crotone arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.7 for Sorrento and 1.7 for Crotone. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sorrento 15%, draw 23%, Crotone 63%.
Safer route: Crotone or draw (85%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Crotone to win at 1.80 – 63% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Sorrento 0–1 Crotone. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sorrento15%fair 6.75 · @4.33
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.20
Crotone63%fair 1.60 · @1.80
2.45Expected goals
0.70Sorrento xG
1.75Crotone xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–213%
1–111%
1–29%
0–09%
0–38%
From our goals model: Sorrento 0.7 – 1.7 Crotone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Crotone to win✗
63%
1.60
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Crotone or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
1.22
Half-time result
Crotone ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Crotone / FT Crotone✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.65
–
Form
Sorrento – last 5
LLLLW
15 Mar
@ Audace Cerignola
2–3
L
8 Mar
vs Benevento
0–2
L
5 Mar
@ Latina
0–2
L
1 Mar
@ Cosenza
2–3
L
22 Feb
vs Siracusa
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Crotone – last 5
LWWDW
15 Mar
vs Salernitana
0–1
L
8 Mar
@ Trapani 1905
4–1
W
5 Mar
vs Cavese
2–0
W
1 Mar
@ SS Monopoli
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Foggia
3–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sorrento and Crotone.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sorrento vs Crotone?
On our numbers Sorrento have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Crotone 63%.
How many goals will there be in Sorrento vs Crotone?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sorrento vs Crotone?
Our predicted score is Sorrento 0–1 Crotone, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Sorrento vs Crotone?
Sorrento vs Crotone (Serie C Girone C) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Alfredo Viviani.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Siracusa2
Latina1
Trapani 19052