Value bet: Ascoli to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultArezzo to win ✗41% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.54
Arezzo vs Ascoli preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C Girone B sees Arezzo take on Ascoli on Monday 30 March, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Citta di Arezzo.
Form guide
Arezzo's last 5: WDWLD Most recently they beat Bra 4–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ascoli's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Gubbio 3–1 away. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.4 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ascoli arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Arezzo and 1.1 for Ascoli. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arezzo 41%, draw 26%, Ascoli 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Ascoli to win at 3.30 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.82, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Arezzo 1–1 Ascoli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arezzo41%fair 2.46 · @2.15
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @2.75
Ascoli33%fair 3.00 · @3.30
2.38Expected goals
1.27Arezzo xG
1.11Ascoli xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Arezzo 1.3 – 1.1 Ascoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arezzo to win✗
41%
2.46
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
2.00 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arezzo / FT Arezzo✗
23%
4.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.54
–
Form
Arezzo – last 6
WDWLDW
20 Mar
@ Bra
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Perugia
1–1
D
9 Mar
@ Campobasso FC
1–0
W
4 Mar
vs Ternana
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs Ravenna
1–1
D
21 Feb
@ Gubbio
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Ascoli – last 5
WWWWW
15 Mar
@ Gubbio
3–1
W
9 Mar
vs Ravenna
2–0
W
4 Mar
@ Sambenedettese
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Pontedera
3–1
W
15 Feb
@ Bra
3–1
W
2.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arezzo and Ascoli.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Arezzo vs Ascoli?
On our numbers Arezzo have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Ascoli 33%.
How many goals will there be in Arezzo vs Ascoli?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arezzo vs Ascoli?
Our predicted score is Arezzo 1–1 Ascoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Arezzo vs Ascoli?
Arezzo vs Ascoli (Serie C Girone B) kicks off on Monday 30 March 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Citta di Arezzo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
