Value bet: Al Shabab to win @ 1.90 – our chance 61% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl Shabab to win ✗61% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.08
Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab preview and prediction
The match
Al Riyadh host Al Shabab in the Pro League on Sunday 5 April, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium. Al Riyadh are 12th with 12 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Al Shabab sit 10th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Al Riyadh's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Al-Ittihad FC 3–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded.
Al Shabab's last 4: LWWL Most recently they lost to Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–5 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 23 February 2026, finished Al Shabab 3–1 Al Riyadh.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.0 for Al Riyadh and 1.9 for Al Shabab. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al Riyadh 20%, draw 19%, Al Shabab 61%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Al Shabab to win at 1.90 – 61% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Al Riyadh 1–1 Al Shabab. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al Riyadh20%fair 4.97 · @3.70
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @3.65
Al Shabab61%fair 1.64 · @1.90
2.84Expected goals
0.95Al Riyadh xG
1.89Al Shabab xG
59%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–111%
1–110%
0–210%
1–210%
0–37%
1–36%
From our goals model: Al Riyadh 1.0 – 1.9 Al Shabab expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab?
On our numbers Al Riyadh have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Al Shabab 61%.
How many goals will there be in Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab?
Our predicted score is Al Riyadh 1–1 Al Shabab, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab?
Al Riyadh vs Al Shabab (Pro League) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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