Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMamelodi Sundowns to win ✗64% · @1.50
Double chanceMamelodi Sundowns or draw ✓83% · @1.09
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.53
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs preview and prediction
The match
The Premier Soccer League sees Mamelodi Sundowns take on Kaizer Chiefs on Wednesday 6 May, kicking off at 18:30 (WAT) at Loftus Versfeld Stadium. Mamelodi Sundowns are 1st with 26 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Kaizer Chiefs sit 5th on 14 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Mamelodi Sundowns's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Polokwane City 3–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Kaizer Chiefs's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Siwelele 0–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Mamelodi Sundowns arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.6 for Kaizer Chiefs. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Mamelodi Sundowns 1–0 Kaizer Chiefs. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mamelodi Sundowns64%fair 1.56 · @1.50
Draw19%fair 5.18 · @3.80
Kaizer Chiefs17%fair 6.00 · @7.30
2.16Expected goals
1.57Mamelodi Sundowns xG
0.59Kaizer Chiefs xG
48%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Mamelodi Sundowns 1.6 – 0.6 Kaizer Chiefs expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mamelodi Sundowns to win✗
64%
1.56
1.50
Double chance
Mamelodi Sundowns or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.09
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mamelodi Sundowns / FT Mamelodi Sundowns✗
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.53
–
Form
Mamelodi Sundowns – last 6
WWDWWL
3 May
vs Polokwane City
3–0
W
29 Apr
@ Polokwane City
1–0
W
22 Apr
vs Stellenbosch
1–1
D
7 Apr
@ Durban City
1–0
W
3 Apr
vs Chippa United
4–1
W
22 Mar
@ Stade Malien Bamako
0–2
L
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Kaizer Chiefs – last 6
LWWWLL
29 Apr
@ Siwelele
0–2
L
15 Apr
@ Magesi
4–1
W
6 Apr
@ Orbit College
3–1
W
15 Mar
vs Durban City
1–0
W
3 Mar
@ Richards Bay
0–1
L
24 Feb
vs Stellenbosch
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mamelodi Sundowns and Kaizer Chiefs.
What is the prediction for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs?
On our numbers Mamelodi Sundowns have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Kaizer Chiefs 17%.
How many goals will there be in Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs?
Our predicted score is Mamelodi Sundowns 1–0 Kaizer Chiefs, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs?
Mamelodi Sundowns vs Kaizer Chiefs (Premier Soccer League) kicks off on Wednesday 6 May 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Loftus Versfeld Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
