Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Alvechurch to win @ 1.85 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAlvechurch to win ✓65% · @1.85
Double chanceAlvechurch or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.71
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✓14% · fair 7.05
Alvechurch vs Stamford preview and prediction
The match
The Non League Premier Southern Central sees Alvechurch take on Stamford on Tuesday 17 March, kicking off at 20:45 (WAT) at Lye Meadow. Alvechurch are 6th with 29 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Stamford sit 22nd on 5 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 24 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Alvechurch's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Kettering Town 2–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.2 for Alvechurch and 0.6 for Stamford. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 41%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Alvechurch to win at 1.85 – 65% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Alvechurch or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Alvechurch 2–0 Stamford. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alvechurch65%fair 1.53 · @1.85
Draw19%fair 5.39 · @3.40
Stamford16%fair 6.25 · @3.60
2.87Expected goals
2.23Alvechurch xG
0.63Stamford xG
41%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–014%
1–013%
3–011%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Alvechurch 2.2 – 0.6 Stamford expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Alvechurch
Stamford
Attack vs Non League Premier Southern Central average
+18%
-56%
Goals conceded vs average
-29%
+39%
Our expected goals here
2.80
0.47
Our own ratings from every Non League Premier Southern Central result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alvechurch to win✓
65%
1.53
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Alvechurch or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Alvechurch ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alvechurch / FT Alvechurch✗
49%
2.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✓
14%
7.05
–
Form
Alvechurch – last 5
WLLLW
10 Mar
@ Kettering Town
2–0
W
3 Mar
vs Stourbridge
1–2
L
24 Feb
vs Real Bedford
3–4
L
21 Feb
vs Redditch United
0–1
L
17 Feb
@ Bromsgrove Sporting
4–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Stamford – last 1
L
21 Feb
@ Barwell
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alvechurch and Stamford.
What is the prediction for Alvechurch vs Stamford?
Our pick is Alvechurch or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alvechurch vs Stamford?
On our numbers Alvechurch have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Stamford 16%.
How many goals will there be in Alvechurch vs Stamford?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alvechurch vs Stamford?
Our predicted score is Alvechurch 2–0 Stamford, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Alvechurch vs Stamford?
Alvechurch vs Stamford (Non League Premier Southern Central) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Lye Meadow.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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