Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.30 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl Ahly to win ✓58% · @1.44
Double chanceAl Ahly or draw ✓84% · @1.03
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.30
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.52
El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees El Mokawloon take on Al Ahly on Thursday 5 March, kicking off at 20:30 (WAT) at Arab Contractors Stadium. El Mokawloon are 7th with 11 points from 8 games (in the top half), while Al Ahly sit 2nd on 20 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Al Ahly's last 3: WWD Most recently they beat Smouha SC 1–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.7 for El Mokawloon and 1.4 for Al Ahly. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: El Mokawloon 16%, draw 26%, Al Ahly 58%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.30.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.30 – 51% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: El Mokawloon 0–1 Al Ahly. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
El Mokawloon16%fair 6.29 · @7.50
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.80
Al Ahly58%fair 1.73 · @1.44
2.18Expected goals
0.74El Mokawloon xG
1.44Al Ahly xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
1–112%
0–212%
0–011%
1–29%
1–08%
From our goals model: El Mokawloon 0.7 – 1.4 Al Ahly expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Ahly to win✓
58%
1.73
1.44
Double chance
Al Ahly or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
2.30 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
79%
1.26
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Ahly / FT Al Ahly✓
32%
3.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.52
–
Form
El Mokawloon – last 2
DD
23 Feb
@ El Gouna FC
1–1
D
19 Feb
vs AL Masry
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Al Ahly – last 3
WWD
23 Feb
@ Smouha SC
1–0
W
19 Feb
vs El Gouna FC
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs FAR Rabat
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between El Mokawloon and Al Ahly.
What is the prediction for El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly?
On our numbers El Mokawloon have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Al Ahly 58%.
How many goals will there be in El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly?
Our predicted score is El Mokawloon 0–1 Al Ahly, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly?
El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly (Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 5 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Arab Contractors Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Haras El Hodood1