Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Paradiso to win @ 1.91 – our chance 61% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultParadiso to win ✗61% · @1.91
Double chanceParadiso or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.55
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗70% · fair 1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.67
Paradiso vs Lugano II preview and prediction
The match
The 1. Liga Promotion sees Paradiso take on Lugano II on Wednesday 15 April, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Campo Pian Scairolo. Paradiso are 5th with 25 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Lugano II sit 16th on 13 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Lugano II's last 3: DLW Most recently they drew with Zürich II 0–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.4 for Paradiso and 1.2 for Lugano II. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paradiso 61%, draw 24%, Lugano II 16%.
Safer route: Paradiso or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Paradiso to win at 1.91 – 61% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Paradiso or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Paradiso 2–1 Lugano II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paradiso61%fair 1.65 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @3.30
Lugano II16%fair 6.43 · @3.40
3.64Expected goals
2.40Paradiso xG
1.24Lugano II xG
65%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
2–08%
3–18%
1–06%
3–06%
From our goals model: Paradiso 2.4 – 1.2 Lugano II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paradiso to win✗
61%
1.65
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Paradiso or draw✓
84%
1.18
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.53
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Paradiso ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paradiso / FT Paradiso✗
42%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.67
–
Form
Paradiso – last 1
D
21 Feb
@ Luzern II
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Lugano II – last 3
DLW
8 Apr
vs Zürich II
0–0
D
2 Apr
@ Bulle
0–2
L
15 Mar
vs Brühl
4–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paradiso and Lugano II.
Our pick is Paradiso or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Paradiso vs Lugano II?
On our numbers Paradiso have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lugano II 16%.
How many goals will there be in Paradiso vs Lugano II?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paradiso vs Lugano II?
Our predicted score is Paradiso 2–1 Lugano II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Paradiso vs Lugano II?
Paradiso vs Lugano II (1. Liga Promotion) kicks off on Wednesday 15 April 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Campo Pian Scairolo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Vevey Sports2
Lausanne Sport II1
SC Kriens1