Value bet: Libertas to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultJuvenes Dogana to win ✗43% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.24
Libertas vs Juvenes Dogana preview and prediction
The match
The Campionato sees Libertas take on Juvenes Dogana on Wednesday 8 April, kicking off at 20:15 (WAT) at Campo sportivo di Borgo Maggiore. Libertas are 9th with 9 points from 8 games (in the bottom half), while Juvenes Dogana sit 11th on 7 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Libertas's last 4: WLDW Most recently they beat Cosmos 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Juvenes Dogana's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with San Marino Academy 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Libertas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Libertas and 1.4 for Juvenes Dogana. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Libertas to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 50% chance at odds of 1.90. Predicted score: Libertas 1–2 Juvenes Dogana. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Libertas35%fair 2.88 · @3.10
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.40
Juvenes Dogana43%fair 2.34 · @2.00
2.68Expected goals
1.26Libertas xG
1.43Juvenes Dogana xG
51%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–09%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Libertas 1.3 – 1.4 Juvenes Dogana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Juvenes Dogana to win✗
43%
2.34
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Juvenes Dogana / FT Juvenes Dogana✗
24%
4.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.24
–
Form
Libertas – last 4
WLDW
15 Mar
vs Cosmos
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Folgore
2–4
L
21 Feb
@ La Fiorita
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Faetano
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Juvenes Dogana – last 5
DLLDL
22 Mar
vs San Marino Academy
0–0
D
18 Mar
vs La Fiorita
1–2
L
8 Mar
@ Virtus
0–2
L
4 Mar
@ La Fiorita
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Fiorentino
1–2
L
0.4Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Libertas and Juvenes Dogana.
What is the prediction for Libertas vs Juvenes Dogana?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.90.
Who will win Libertas vs Juvenes Dogana?
On our numbers Libertas have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Juvenes Dogana 43%.
How many goals will there be in Libertas vs Juvenes Dogana?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Libertas vs Juvenes Dogana?
Our predicted score is Libertas 1–2 Juvenes Dogana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Libertas vs Juvenes Dogana?
Libertas vs Juvenes Dogana (Campionato) kicks off on Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Campo sportivo di Borgo Maggiore.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
