Value bet: AF Elbasani to win @ 2.55 – our chance 44% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAF Elbasani to win ✓44% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.78
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓12% · fair 8.01
Tirana vs AF Elbasani preview and prediction
The match
Tirana host AF Elbasani in the Superliga on Sunday 8 March, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Arena Kombetare. Tirana are 4th with 15 points from 11 games (in the top four), while AF Elbasani sit 6th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Tirana's last 4: LLLL Most recently they lost to Dinamo Tirana 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
AF Elbasani's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Partizani 2–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
AF Elbasani arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Tirana and 1.3 for AF Elbasani. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 44%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tirana 34%, draw 22%, AF Elbasani 44%.
Value angle: AF Elbasani to win at 2.55 – 44% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 57% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Tirana 1–1 AF Elbasani. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tirana34%fair 2.96 · @2.45
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.20
AF Elbasani44%fair 2.25 · @2.55
2.32Expected goals
1.05Tirana xG
1.27AF Elbasani xG
44%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Tirana 1.1 – 1.3 AF Elbasani expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AF Elbasani to win✓
44%
2.25
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AF Elbasani / FT AF Elbasani✓
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
12%
8.01
–
Form
Tirana – last 4
LLLL
4 Mar
@ Dinamo Tirana
0–2
L
27 Feb
@ Vllaznia Shkodër
1–3
L
22 Feb
vs Teuta Durrës
0–1
L
15 Feb
@ Partizani
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
AF Elbasani – last 3
WWL
4 Mar
@ Partizani
2–1
W
21 Feb
vs Vora
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Vllaznia Shkodër
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tirana and AF Elbasani.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Tirana vs AF Elbasani?
On our numbers Tirana have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and AF Elbasani 44%.
How many goals will there be in Tirana vs AF Elbasani?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tirana vs AF Elbasani?
Our predicted score is Tirana 1–1 AF Elbasani, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Tirana vs AF Elbasani?
Tirana vs AF Elbasani (Superliga) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Kombetare.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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