Value bet: Moncarapachense to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLagoa to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.19
Lagoa vs Moncarapachense preview and prediction
The match
Lagoa host Moncarapachense in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D on Sunday 22 February, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Estadio Capitao Josino da Costa.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Lagoa and 1.1 for Moncarapachense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 47%.
Value angle: Moncarapachense to win at 3.40 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 58% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Lagoa 1–1 Moncarapachense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lagoa45%fair 2.23 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.10
Moncarapachense33%fair 3.04 · @3.40
2.37Expected goals
1.31Lagoa xG
1.06Moncarapachense xG
47%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Lagoa 1.3 – 1.1 Moncarapachense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lagoa to win✓
45%
2.23
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lagoa / FT Lagoa✓
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.19
–
Form
Lagoa – last 1
L
15 Feb
@ Juventude Évora
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Moncarapachense – last 1
D
15 Feb
vs Comércio Indústria
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lagoa and Moncarapachense.
What is the prediction for Lagoa vs Moncarapachense?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Lagoa vs Moncarapachense?
On our numbers Lagoa have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Moncarapachense 33%.
How many goals will there be in Lagoa vs Moncarapachense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lagoa vs Moncarapachense?
Our predicted score is Lagoa 1–1 Moncarapachense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Lagoa vs Moncarapachense?
Lagoa vs Moncarapachense (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Capitao Josino da Costa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
