Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.91 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.91Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMortágua to win ✗61% · @1.91
Double chanceMortágua or draw ✗83% · fair 1.21
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.31
Mortágua vs Fátima preview and prediction
The match
Mortágua host Fátima in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C on Sunday 8 March, with kick-off at 16:00 (WAT) at Campo da Gandarada. Mortágua are 4th with 15 points from 8 games (in the top four), while Fátima sit 7th on 11 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Mortágua's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to Samora Correir 0–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.5 for Mortágua and 0.6 for Fátima. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mortágua 61%, draw 22%, Fátima 17%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Mortágua to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.65, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mortágua 1–0 Fátima. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mortágua61%fair 1.65 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.00
Fátima17%fair 5.74 · @3.90
2.04Expected goals
1.45Mortágua xG
0.59Fátima xG
40%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–014%
0–013%
1–111%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Mortágua 1.5 – 0.6 Fátima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mortágua to win✗
61%
1.65
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Mortágua or draw✗
83%
1.21
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.53
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mortágua / FT Mortágua✗
35%
2.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.31
–
Form
Mortágua – last 3
LWW
1 Mar
@ Samora Correir
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Peniche
2–1
W
15 Feb
@ Oliveira Hospital
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fátima – last 2
DD
1 Mar
vs Lajense
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Samora Correir
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mortágua and Fátima.
Our pick is Mortágua to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Mortágua vs Fátima?
On our numbers Mortágua have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fátima 17%.
How many goals will there be in Mortágua vs Fátima?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mortágua vs Fátima?
Our predicted score is Mortágua 1–0 Fátima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Mortágua vs Fátima?
Mortágua vs Fátima (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group C) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo da Gandarada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Lusitânia0
Eléctrico4
Marinhense1