Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Machico to win @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMachico to win ✓58% · @1.85
Double chanceMachico or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓19% · fair 5.35
Machico vs Vilaverdense preview and prediction
The match
Machico host Vilaverdense in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A on Wednesday 8 April, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Estádio Municipal de Machico.
Form guide
Machico's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Camacha 1–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Vilaverdense's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Brito 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Machico arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.4 for Machico and 0.6 for Vilaverdense. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely.
Value angle: Machico to win at 1.85 – 58% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Machico or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Machico 1–0 Vilaverdense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Machico58%fair 1.71 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @2.90
Vilaverdense16%fair 6.09 · @4.00
2.04Expected goals
1.44Machico xG
0.60Vilaverdense xG
51%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–013%
0–013%
1–111%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Machico 1.4 – 0.6 Vilaverdense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Machico to win✓
58%
1.71
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Machico or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Machico / FT Machico✗
34%
2.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
19%
5.35
–
Form
Machico – last 6
LWWWLD
22 Mar
@ Camacha
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Bragança
2–0
W
8 Mar
vs Brito
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ AR São Martinho
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Vianense
2–3
L
15 Feb
@ Tirsense
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Vilaverdense – last 6
LWLLDL
22 Mar
vs Brito
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ AR São Martinho
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Vianense
0–2
L
1 Mar
@ Tirsense
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Chaves II
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ Os Limianos
1–4
L
0.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Machico and Vilaverdense.
What is the prediction for Machico vs Vilaverdense?
Our pick is Machico or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Machico vs Vilaverdense?
On our numbers Machico have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Vilaverdense 16%.
How many goals will there be in Machico vs Vilaverdense?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Machico vs Vilaverdense?
Our predicted score is Machico 1–0 Vilaverdense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Machico vs Vilaverdense?
Machico vs Vilaverdense (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group A) kicks off on Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Machico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
