Value bet: Luckenwalde to win @ 2.85 – our chance 37% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBSG Chemie Leipzig to win ✓39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓10% · fair 9.95
BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Luckenwalde preview and prediction
The match
BSG Chemie Leipzig host Luckenwalde in the Regionalliga Nordost on Sunday 22 March, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT) at Alfred-Kunze-Sportpark. BSG Chemie Leipzig are 14th with 14 points from 16 games (in the bottom half), while Luckenwalde sit 18th on 8 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
BSG Chemie Leipzig's last 5: DLDWL Most recently they drew with BFC Preussen 2–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Luckenwalde's last 3: WDD Most recently they beat Altglienicke 2–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Luckenwalde arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for BSG Chemie Leipzig and 1.3 for Luckenwalde. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Luckenwalde to win at 2.85 – 37% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: BSG Chemie Leipzig 1–1 Luckenwalde. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
BSG Chemie Leipzig39%fair 2.57 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.25
Luckenwalde37%fair 2.69 · @2.85
2.56Expected goals
1.30BSG Chemie Leipzig xG
1.26Luckenwalde xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: BSG Chemie Leipzig 1.3 – 1.3 Luckenwalde expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
BSG Chemie Leipzig to win✓
39%
2.57
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT BSG Chemie Leipzig / FT BSG Chemie Leipzig✓
22%
4.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
10%
9.95
–
Form
BSG Chemie Leipzig – last 6
DLDWLL
18 Mar
vs BFC Preussen
2–2
D
13 Mar
@ BFC Dynamo
0–2
L
8 Mar
@ FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
2–2
D
4 Mar
vs Chemnitzer FC
2–1
W
1 Mar
vs Hallescher FC
0–2
L
21 Feb
@ FC Carl Zeiss Jena
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Luckenwalde – last 3
WDD
11 Mar
@ Altglienicke
2–0
W
8 Mar
@ Hertha Zehlendorf
1–1
D
4 Mar
vs Magdeburg II
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between BSG Chemie Leipzig and Luckenwalde.
What is the prediction for BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Luckenwalde?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Luckenwalde?
On our numbers BSG Chemie Leipzig have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Luckenwalde 37%.
How many goals will there be in BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Luckenwalde?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Luckenwalde?
Our predicted score is BSG Chemie Leipzig 1–1 Luckenwalde, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Luckenwalde?
BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Luckenwalde (Regionalliga Nordost) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Alfred-Kunze-Sportpark.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Hertha Zehlendorf0
Eilenburg0