Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya prediction & analysis
65%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPersebaya Surabaya to win ✓66% · @1.30
Double chancePersebaya Surabaya or draw ✓88% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.36
Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya preview and prediction
The match
Semen Padang host Persebaya Surabaya in the Liga 1 on Friday 15 May, with kick-off at 09:30 (WAT) at Stadion GOR Haji Agus Salim.
Form guide
Semen Padang's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to Persik Kediri 0–3 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 4 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Persebaya Surabaya's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Persis Solo 0–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Persebaya Surabaya arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 0.8 for Semen Padang and 2.0 for Persebaya Surabaya. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 53%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Semen Padang 0–2 Persebaya Surabaya. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Semen Padang12%fair 8.60 · @8.25
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @4.80
Persebaya Surabaya66%fair 1.52 · @1.30
2.82Expected goals
0.77Semen Padang xG
2.05Persebaya Surabaya xG
53%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–213%
0–112%
1–210%
1–19%
0–39%
1–37%
From our goals model: Semen Padang 0.8 – 2.0 Persebaya Surabaya expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Persebaya Surabaya to win✓
66%
1.52
1.30
Double chance
Persebaya Surabaya or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.53
Half-time result
Persebaya Surabaya ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Persebaya Surabaya / FT Persebaya Surabaya✓
43%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.36
–
Form
Semen Padang – last 6
LLLLLL
8 May
vs Persik Kediri
0–3
L
3 May
@ Dewa United
0–1
L
29 Apr
vs Persepam Madura Utd
0–1
L
20 Apr
vs Persijap
0–2
L
12 Apr
@ Persis Solo
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Persib Bandung
0–2
L
0.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Persebaya Surabaya – last 6
DWWWLW
9 May
@ Persis Solo
0–0
D
2 May
vs PSBS Biak Numfor
4–0
W
28 Apr
@ Arema FC
4–0
W
23 Apr
@ Malut United
2–0
W
17 Apr
vs Persepam Madura Utd
1–2
L
4 Apr
vs Persita
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Semen Padang and Persebaya Surabaya.
What is the prediction for Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya?
On our numbers Semen Padang have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Persebaya Surabaya 66%.
How many goals will there be in Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Our predicted score is Semen Padang 0–2 Persebaya Surabaya, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Semen Padang vs Persebaya Surabaya (Liga 1) kicks off on Friday 15 May 2026 at 09:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadion GOR Haji Agus Salim.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
