Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United prediction & analysis
79%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Bali United to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBali United to win ✗40% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.23
Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United preview and prediction
The match
The Liga 1 sees Persepam Madura Utd take on Bali United on Tuesday 5 May, kicking off at 09:30 (WAT) at Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium. Persepam Madura Utd are 4th with 19 points from 9 games (in the top four), while Bali United sit 3rd on 19 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Persepam Madura Utd's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Semen Padang 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Bali United's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat PSM Makassar 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Bali United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.5 for Persepam Madura Utd and 1.7 for Bali United. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 64% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Persepam Madura Utd 36%, draw 24%, Bali United 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Bali United to win at 2.70 – 40% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Persepam Madura Utd 1–1 Bali United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Persepam Madura Utd36%fair 2.76 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.50
Bali United40%fair 2.52 · @2.70
3.15Expected goals
1.47Persepam Madura Utd xG
1.69Bali United xG
64%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
2–27%
1–06%
From our goals model: Persepam Madura Utd 1.5 – 1.7 Bali United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bali United to win✗
40%
2.52
2.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.56
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.60
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bali United / FT Bali United✗
26%
3.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.23
–
Form
Persepam Madura Utd – last 6
WLWWLL
29 Apr
@ Semen Padang
1–0
W
25 Apr
vs Dewa United
1–2
L
17 Apr
@ Persebaya Surabaya
2–1
W
11 Apr
vs Persik Kediri
2–1
W
5 Apr
vs Pusamania Borneo
1–3
L
3 Mar
vs Malut United
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bali United – last 6
WWWLWL
27 Apr
vs PSM Makassar
2–0
W
23 Apr
@ Persita
1–0
W
19 Apr
vs Malut United
4–1
W
12 Apr
@ Persib Bandung
2–3
L
6 Apr
vs PSBS Biak Numfor
6–1
W
12 Mar
@ Persis Solo
0–3
L
2.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Persepam Madura Utd and Bali United.
What is the prediction for Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United?
On our numbers Persepam Madura Utd have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Bali United 40%.
How many goals will there be in Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United?
Our predicted score is Persepam Madura Utd 1–1 Bali United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United?
Persepam Madura Utd vs Bali United (Liga 1) kicks off on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 09:30 (West Africa Time) at Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
