Double chancePersebaya Surabaya or draw ✗83% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.14
Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd preview and prediction
The match
Persebaya Surabaya host Persepam Madura Utd in the Liga 1 on Friday 17 April, with kick-off at 13:00 (WAT) at Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium. Persebaya Surabaya are 8th with 13 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Persepam Madura Utd sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Persebaya Surabaya's last 4: WDWL Most recently they beat Persita 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Persepam Madura Utd's last 5: WLLLD Most recently they beat Persik Kediri 2–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Persebaya Surabaya arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Persebaya Surabaya and 0.9 for Persepam Madura Utd. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Persebaya Surabaya 2–0 Persepam Madura Utd. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Persebaya Surabaya61%fair 1.65 · @1.60
Draw22%fair 4.55 · @3.60
Persepam Madura Utd17%fair 5.74 · @5.00
2.71Expected goals
1.84Persebaya Surabaya xG
0.87Persepam Madura Utd xG
55%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Persebaya Surabaya 1.8 – 0.9 Persepam Madura Utd expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Persebaya Surabaya to win✗
61%
1.65
1.60
Double chance
Persebaya Surabaya or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Half-time result
Persebaya Surabaya ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Persebaya Surabaya / FT Persebaya Surabaya✗
38%
2.64
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.14
–
Form
Persebaya Surabaya – last 4
WDWL
4 Apr
vs Persita
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Persib Bandung
2–2
D
25 Feb
vs PSM Makassar
1–0
W
14 Feb
vs Bhayangkara FC
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Persepam Madura Utd – last 6
WLLLDD
11 Apr
vs Persik Kediri
2–1
W
5 Apr
vs Pusamania Borneo
1–3
L
3 Mar
vs Malut United
1–2
L
26 Feb
@ Persib Bandung
0–5
L
21 Feb
vs Arema FC
2–2
D
13 Feb
@ Persis Solo
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Persebaya Surabaya and Persepam Madura Utd.
What is the prediction for Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?
On our numbers Persebaya Surabaya have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Persepam Madura Utd 17%.
How many goals will there be in Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?
Our predicted score is Persebaya Surabaya 2–0 Persepam Madura Utd, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd?
Persebaya Surabaya vs Persepam Madura Utd (Liga 1) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
