Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Persebaya Surabaya or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Persebaya Surabaya to win @ 1.95 – our chance 63% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPersebaya Surabaya to win ✓63% · @1.95
Double chancePersebaya Surabaya or draw ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.80
Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar preview and prediction
The match
PSM Makassar travel to Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium in the Liga 1 on Wednesday 25 February (14:30 WAT) to face Persebaya Surabaya. Persebaya Surabaya are 8th with 13 points from 9 games (in the top half), while PSM Makassar sit 12th on 10 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Persebaya Surabaya and 0.7 for PSM Makassar. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Safer route: Persebaya Surabaya or draw (85%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Persebaya Surabaya to win at 1.95 – 63% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Persebaya Surabaya or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Persebaya Surabaya 1–0 PSM Makassar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Persebaya Surabaya63%fair 1.59 · @1.95
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.10
PSM Makassar15%fair 6.68 · @3.65
2.45Expected goals
1.75Persebaya Surabaya xG
0.70PSM Makassar xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Persebaya Surabaya 1.7 – 0.7 PSM Makassar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Persebaya Surabaya to win✓
63%
1.59
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Persebaya Surabaya or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Persebaya Surabaya ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Persebaya Surabaya / FT Persebaya Surabaya✓
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.80
–
Form
Persebaya Surabaya – last 1
L
14 Feb
vs Bhayangkara FC
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
PSM Makassar – last 2
LL
20 Feb
@ Persija
1–2
L
14 Feb
vs Dewa United
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Persebaya Surabaya and PSM Makassar.
What is the prediction for Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar?
Our pick is Persebaya Surabaya or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar?
On our numbers Persebaya Surabaya have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and PSM Makassar 15%.
How many goals will there be in Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar?
Our predicted score is Persebaya Surabaya 1–0 PSM Makassar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar?
Persebaya Surabaya vs PSM Makassar (Liga 1) kicks off on Wednesday 25 February 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
