Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.23
10/10Rating
1.23Odds
2
Value bet: FC Krasnodar to win @ 1.82 – our chance 65% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Krasnodar to win65% · @1.82
Double chanceFC Krasnodar or draw88% · @1.23
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score51% · @1.86
GoalsOver 1.5 goals73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–114% · fair 7.29
Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar preview and prediction
The match
Akhmat host FC Krasnodar in the Premier League on Saturday 4 April, with kick-off at 17:45 (WAT) at Akhmat-Arena. Akhmat are 12th with 14 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while FC Krasnodar sit 4th on 26 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Akhmat's last 5: WDDWD Most recently they beat FC Rostov 1–0 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FC Krasnodar's last 5: WWLLW Most recently they beat CSKA Moscow 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.7 for Akhmat and 1.9 for FC Krasnodar. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Akhmat 12%, draw 23%, FC Krasnodar 65%.
Safer route: FC Krasnodar or draw (88%) at 1.23.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.86.
Value angle: FC Krasnodar to win at 1.82 – 65% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was FC Krasnodar or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.23, above our fair price of 1.14, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Akhmat 0–1 FC Krasnodar. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Akhmat12%fair 8.11 · @4.60
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.74
FC Krasnodar65%fair 1.54 · @1.82
2.64Expected goals
0.72Akhmat xG
1.92FC Krasnodar xG
49%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–213%
1–110%
1–29%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Akhmat 0.7 – 1.9 FC Krasnodar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Krasnodar to win
65%
1.54
1.82 ▲
Double chance
FC Krasnodar or draw
88%
1.14
1.23 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
51%
1.97
1.86
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
51%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
73%
1.37
1.27
Half-time result
FC Krasnodar ahead at half-time
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Krasnodar / FT FC Krasnodar
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
14%
7.29
–
Form
Akhmat – last 5
WDDWD
21 Mar
vs FC Rostov
1–0
W
15 Mar
@ Akron
1–1
D
9 Mar
@ Lokomotiv
2–2
D
1 Mar
vs CSKA Moscow
1–0
W
18 Feb
@ Baltika
2–2
D
1.4Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
FC Krasnodar – last 6
WWLLWL
17 Mar
vs CSKA Moscow
4–0
W
14 Mar
@ FC Sochi
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Rubin
1–2
L
4 Mar
@ CSKA Moscow
1–3
L
28 Feb
vs FC Rostov
2–1
W
17 Feb
vs Zenit
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Akhmat and FC Krasnodar.
What is the prediction for Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar?
Our pick is FC Krasnodar or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar?
On our numbers Akhmat have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 23% and FC Krasnodar 65%.
How many goals will there be in Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar?
Our predicted score is Akhmat 0–1 FC Krasnodar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar?
Akhmat vs FC Krasnodar (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Akhmat-Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
