Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Lokomotiv to win @ 1.82 – our chance 62% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLokomotiv to win ✗62% · @1.82
Double chanceLokomotiv or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.71
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.02
Lokomotiv vs Akhmat preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Lokomotiv take on Akhmat on Monday 9 March, kicking off at 14:30 (WAT) at RZD Arena. Lokomotiv are 15th with 11 points from 14 games (in the bottom three), while Akhmat sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Lokomotiv and 0.9 for Akhmat. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Lokomotiv 62%, draw 22%, Akhmat 16%.
Safer route: Lokomotiv or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.71.
Value angle: Lokomotiv to win at 1.82 – 62% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lokomotiv or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.20, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lokomotiv 1–0 Akhmat. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lokomotiv62%fair 1.62 · @1.82
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.88
Akhmat16%fair 6.09 · @4.40
2.88Expected goals
1.97Lokomotiv xG
0.91Akhmat xG
58%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Lokomotiv 2.0 – 0.9 Akhmat expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lokomotiv to win✗
62%
1.62
1.82 ▲
Double chance
Lokomotiv or draw✓
84%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.71
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.24
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.36
Half-time result
Lokomotiv ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lokomotiv / FT Lokomotiv✗
39%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.02
–
Form
Lokomotiv – last 2
WW
5 Mar
@ Arsenal Tula
2–1
W
14 Feb
vs Dinamo Samarqand
4–0
W
3.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Akhmat – last 2
WD
1 Mar
vs CSKA Moscow
1–0
W
18 Feb
@ Baltika
2–2
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lokomotiv and Akhmat.
Our pick is Lokomotiv or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lokomotiv vs Akhmat?
On our numbers Lokomotiv have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Akhmat 16%.
How many goals will there be in Lokomotiv vs Akhmat?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lokomotiv vs Akhmat?
Our predicted score is Lokomotiv 1–0 Akhmat, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Lokomotiv vs Akhmat?
Lokomotiv vs Akhmat (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 9 March 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at RZD Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
