Value bet: Torreense to win @ 1.84 – our chance 60% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTorreense to win ✓60% · @1.84
Double chanceTorreense or draw ✓82% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.50
Torreense vs Penafiel preview and prediction
The match
Torreense host Penafiel in the Segunda Liga on Monday 4 May, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Estadio Manuel Marques. Torreense are 13th with 10 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Penafiel sit 1st on 22 points (top of the table). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Torreense's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Feirense 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penafiel's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Academico Viseu 4–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Torreense arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for Torreense and 0.7 for Penafiel. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Torreense to win at 1.84 – 60% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Torreense 1–0 Penafiel. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Torreense60%fair 1.65 · @1.84
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @3.30
Penafiel18%fair 5.43 · @4.10
2.36Expected goals
1.62Torreense xG
0.73Penafiel xG
52%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–012%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Torreense 1.6 – 0.7 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Torreense to win✓
60%
1.65
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Torreense or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Torreense / FT Torreense✓
36%
2.78
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.50
–
Form
Torreense – last 6
DWDWWW
28 Apr
@ Feirense
0–0
D
23 Apr
vs Fafe
2–0
W
6 Apr
vs Leixoes
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ Felgueiras 1932
3–0
W
16 Mar
vs Portimonense
1–0
W
7 Mar
@ Oliveirense
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Penafiel – last 6
WWLDDW
11 Apr
vs Academico Viseu
4–3
W
4 Apr
@ Sporting CP B
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Feirense
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Benfica B
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Torreense and Penafiel.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Torreense vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Torreense have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Penafiel 18%.
How many goals will there be in Torreense vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Torreense vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Torreense 1–0 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Torreense vs Penafiel?
Torreense vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Manuel Marques.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
