Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa preview and prediction
The match
Penafiel host Lusitânia Lourosa in the Segunda Liga on Monday 16 February, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril. Penafiel are 1st with 22 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Lusitânia Lourosa sit 4th on 19 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Penafiel and 1.3 for Lusitânia Lourosa. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 56%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Penafiel 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penafiel35%fair 2.85 · @2.64
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.00
Lusitânia Lourosa39%fair 2.53 · @2.64
2.45Expected goals
1.18Penafiel xG
1.27Lusitânia Lourosa xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.2 – 1.3 Lusitânia Lourosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lusitânia Lourosa to win✗
39%
2.53
2.64
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lusitânia Lourosa / FT Lusitânia Lourosa✗
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.11
–
Form
Penafiel
No recent results on record.
Lusitânia Lourosa
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa.
What is the prediction for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lusitânia Lourosa 39%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Monday 16 February 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
